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Russia’s one-year inflation expectations fall to 13.2% as longer-term expectations rise
Russia’s October household survey shows lower one-year inflation expectations but a higher five-year reading. Here is what the diverging figures mean.
Russian households expect slower price increases over the next year, but their longer-term assessment has moved in the opposite direction. The October InFOM survey published by the Bank of Russia puts median one-year inflation expectations at 13.2%, down from 14.2% in September. Expected annual inflation five years ahead rose to 12.2% from 10.7%.
The changes are 1.0 percentage point down and 1.5 percentage points up, respectively. Neither number is Russia’s measured inflation rate, and the five-year reading is not a forecast of the cumulative price increase over five years.
Two horizons, two different signals
The survey, conducted on October 5 to 15, asks households how they think prices will change. The one-year question concerns the coming 12 months. The longer-horizon question asks respondents to assess annual inflation around 2031.
That distinction matters. The lower near-term reading indicates a moderation in the survey’s central estimate, while the higher distant reading prevents the same conclusion being applied across all horizons. The results do not identify a single cause for either movement or establish that the monthly changes are statistically significant.
Respondents’ assessment of inflation already experienced also declined, to 14.5% from 15.1%. This is perceived inflation over the preceding year, rather than Rosstat’s consumer price index. The survey measures people’s judgments; the CPI measures changes in a defined basket of prices.
Savings divide the household picture
Among respondents with savings, one-year expectations fell to 11.6% from 12.8%. Among those without savings, they declined to 14.6% from 15.4%.
Both groups therefore reported lower expectations, but a substantial gap remained. The comparison does not prove that savings caused the difference: households can also differ in income, spending patterns and other characteristics that these headline figures do not isolate.
InFOM’s methodology describes face-to-face interviews with at least 2,000 adults across 100 settlements in 54 Russian regions. The headline figures are grouped medians, not the proportion of respondents who expect prices to rise.
What this means before the rate meeting
The release arrives ahead of the Bank of Russia’s October 23 policy meeting. Inflation expectations are relevant to monetary policy, but this survey alone cannot establish the decision. Measured price changes, underlying inflation and the broader economic outlook remain separate evidence.
For household budgeting, the essential distinction is simpler: a fall in expected inflation still means respondents expect prices to rise. It does not mean they expect the overall price level to fall. October’s survey offers some near-term moderation alongside a less reassuring longer-term reading, rather than one unambiguous signal.
