NewsTrade & Sanctions
Russia’s current-account surplus grows, but export earnings are not settled cash
Russia’s January to August current-account surplus reached $35 billion. The monthly figures and rising trade-settlement claims explain why that is not a cash total.
Russia’s current-account surplus reached $35.0 billion in January to August 2026, up from $21.0 billion a year earlier, according to the Bank of Russia’s preliminary estimate published on October 15. But that larger external surplus does not mean an equivalent sum of export proceeds arrived as immediately available cash.
The same release records growing claims on nonresidents linked to international trade settlements. A second distinction emerges in the monthly numbers: August’s current account improved even as its goods-trade surplus narrowed.
Why August improved without a bigger goods surplus
The current account includes goods, services, primary income and secondary income. It is broader than the difference between goods exports and imports.
August’s surplus was $3.3 billion, compared with a revised $1.6 billion in July. Yet the goods surplus fell to $11.7 billion from $13.3 billion, while the services deficit widened to $6.3 billion from $5.4 billion.
The explanation lies in the income balance. The combined primary-and-secondary-income deficit narrowed to $2.1 billion from $6.4 billion. The central bank said this followed July’s peak accruals of investment income to nonresidents. That smaller deficit more than offset the weaker goods and services balances.
July’s revision matters: comparisons should use the updated figure in the October release, rather than an earlier estimate. The figures are preliminary, nominal US-dollar values, not seasonally adjusted measures of real economic growth.
A trade claim is not necessarily cash in the bank
External financial assets excluding reserves increased by $12.5 billion in August, against $7.3 billion in July. The bank linked the increase to nonresidents’ indebtedness on international trade settlements. Over January to August, the increase was $47.3 billion, compared with $30.4 billion a year earlier.
In this context, an asset can be a claim on a foreign counterparty. Recording an export and holding the resulting claim do not establish that payment has already been received, can be transferred without restriction or has been exchanged for rubles.
The release does not quantify how much of the claims was overdue, blocked or specifically caused by sanctions. It would therefore be misleading to label the entire asset increase “unpaid exports” or treat it as a direct measure of inaccessible money.
What the eight-month surplus does show
For January to August, the goods surplus was $91.6 billion, offset by a $33.7 billion services deficit and a $22.9 billion income deficit. Goods exports were valued at $312.4 billion and imports at $220.8 billion. The bank associated the larger goods surplus with export growth linked to higher global commodity prices; higher dollar values alone do not demonstrate higher physical volumes.
The current account also describes a different set of transactions from the federal budget. An external surplus can coexist with a government deficit without contradiction. For interpreting Russia’s trade and currency position, the useful questions are therefore both what was recorded and how the resulting payments were settled.
